The SARS Coronavirus Delta Variant is a different beast
The Delta variant of SARS Coronavirus 2 is more infectious than all the virus variants the world encountered before. Fact. If you are not vaccinated and you encounter the Delta variant you will become infected. Fact. Everything else about the Delta variant — we do not know.
My group has been sequencing SARS Coronavirus 2 viral variants since last year. I have had friends die of COVID-19 and I have had my two vaccine shots. I feel pretty safe to board a plane, but I will wear my N95 mask from the moment I enter the airport terminal until I am out of the Uber and alone in my room again.
Each of us has a unique genetic makeup. We react differently to virus exposure and vaccine exposure. No one can predict an individual’s reaction to infection. We know, however, that all viruses change over time and become more infectious, which is colloquial for increased human-to-human transmissibility, and which is the biological property that is inferred by current sequencing studies. The increased population frequency is the reason for Delta being classified as a variant of concern and given a special name.
Since we cannot predict who will or will not die when exposed to SARS-CoV-2, the greater good is best served by reducing the frequency of infected persons in the population. That is the scientific rationale. The public health uncertainty is that — as of yet — we do not know if vaccination alone would be protective or if mask-wearing alone would be sufficient, or if radical social distancing is needed on top of the two other measures.
We do know that the number of respirators and intensive care units is fixed in each community, typically a county, as is the number of testing centers and ambulances. The excess deaths and hospitalization attributed to the Delta variant are as much a function of a communities pandemic preparedness as of the biological properties of the virus. Now, a year later, the USA is in pretty good shape, India and Brazil are still not.
The Delta variant of SARS Coronavirus 2 is more transmissible than all the SARS Coronavirus 2 variants the world encountered before. That is a fact, but if you never encounter the virus in the first place, that biological property does not matter. A hermit on top of a mountain does not need to get vaccinated. I used to say, if you play tennis or golf, you don’t need to wear a mask, since science has established radii of droplet dissemination, the temperature-, and UV-susceptibility of the virion particle. The mutations in the Delta variant do not seem to change these purely physical properties.
Where does this leave us, today? People never got infected on the golf course, to begin with, but in the clubhouse, in the changing rooms, and at the bar after the game. There the temperature is ambient, not hot. There are no UV rays (ordinary glass blocks them) and air exchange is limited — that is how it smells, anyway. More generally, we cannot control our surroundings as much as we like to. One car accident and you have thirty onlookers, three emergency technicians, and a hospital staff of twenty literally in your face. Delta will get you under this scenario, Alpha and Beta may not have.
